Economic look back and forward

Published on 12/01/2026

Economically, last year was marked by cautious recovery and stabilisation. After the turbulent period of high inflation, rapidly rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in previous years, the global economy slowly began to find more balance. By 2025, inflation continued to decline in many developed economies. Central banks were therefore able to ease their tight monetary policy. Although interest rate cuts were made cautiously and in stages, this provided relief to households and businesses. Purchasing power recovered slightly, although price levels remained structurally higher than before 2020.

Moderate but positive economic growth

Economic growth remained modest in 2025. Consumers remained cautious, partly due to uncertainty about the labour market and high housing costs. At the same time, public investment and exports kept the economy afloat. Sectors such as technology, energy transition and defence performed relatively strongly, while construction and retail struggled. The number of bankruptcies decreased slightly compared to 2024, stabilising at the pre-COVID 2019 level. Although the labour market remained tight, a clear shift was visible. Demand for highly skilled technical staff and healthcare workers remained strong, while growth levelled off in other sectors. Wage increases continued, but at a slower pace than in previous years.

Economic outlook 2026: opportunities in a changing landscape

For 2026, the outlook is cautiously optimistic, although risks remain. Economic growth is expected to pick up slightly in 2026. Lower interest rates could stimulate investment, especially in digitalisation, infrastructure and sustainability. Companies betting on automation and AI increase productivity, which could support growth in the medium term. While inflation is expected to remain within acceptable ranges, it remains sensitive to external shocks such as energy prices and geopolitical developments. Central banks will therefore remain alert and keep their policies flexible. In 2026, the labour market is increasingly affected by ageing and labour shortages. Retraining, labour migration and technological support will become crucial to sustain economic growth.

Geopolitics and global trade

International tensions remain an uncertain factor. At the same time, restructuring of global production chains leads to new opportunities for regional cooperation and strategic autonomy within Europe. 2025 marked a year of recovery and recalibration, with economies learning to cope with a new normal of higher costs and structural change. In 2026, the focus is on progress through innovation, investment and resilience. While the road ahead is not without risks, the economic landscape offers ample opportunities for sustainable growth. Chart the risks well and cover them well where necessary. This will ensure the continuity of your own business.

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