According to Allianz Trade, 2026 will be the fifth consecutive year in which the number of business failures worldwide increases. The organisation expects an increase of about 6% in 2026, mainly due to higher energy prices, more expensive transport costs, disruptions in supply chains and rising inflation. Europe and Asia are particularly hard hit by their dependence on oil and gas imports from the Middle East, according to Allianz Trade. Bankruptcies continue to rise sharply in China, while further increases are also expected in European countries such as Germany, France and Belgium. The United States is relatively better protected, although bankruptcies are still increasing there too. The hardest-hit sectors are energy-intensive industries such as transport, chemicals, metals, construction and manufacturing. In addition, higher financing costs and declining consumer confidence are causing companies to postpone investments and consumers to spend less.
Jobs under pressure
Allianz Trade warns that around 2.2 million jobs worldwide will be under pressure by 2026, of which around 1.3 million will be in Europe. In a worse scenario, with a longer-lasting conflict, the rise in bankruptcies could reach almost 10%. External risks such as a possible downturn in the AI sector and high government debts could also further worsen the economic situation.
Disruption via Strait of Hormuz and scenarios for growth
Atradius' main focus is on the direct impact of the crisis in the Gulf region, particularly the uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global energy trade. With shipping away, a significant portion of international oil and gas flows are under pressure, leading directly to higher energy prices and disruptions in global trade chains. Atradius outlines two scenarios. In the base case, a peace agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but trade recovery takes months. In this case, energy prices stabilise after a temporary spike. In the negative scenario, the Strait remains closed for six months or more and the conflict escalates, with permanent damage to energy production and severe disruptions in supply chains.
Chain reaction
According to Atradius, higher energy prices create a wider economic chain reaction in both scenarios. Oil and gas are not only energy sources, but also important raw materials for food production, chemicals and plastics. As a result, food prices also rise, leading to higher inflation. Consumers spend less, companies postpone investments and higher interest rates amplify the economic slowdown. The impact varies by region: the Middle East is hardest hit, followed by Asia-Pacific and Europe. The United States is relatively better protected by its own energy supply, but does not remain immune to the impact. Atradius expects global industrial growth to fall from 3.5% in 2025 to around 2.5% in the base scenario and around 1% in the negative scenario.
Fragile global economy
Both Allianz Trade and Atradius paint a picture of increasing global economic pressures due to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. While Allianz Trade mainly highlights the impact on bankruptcies and employment, Atradius describes the disruptions in energy trade and the impact on industrial growth. Collectively, both analyses point to a fragile global economy in which geopolitical tensions can quickly affect growth, inflation and business continuity.